Those who cherish Hal G. P. Colebatch's contributions to the commentariat columnists' cloud of unknowing will be delighted this week.
For the benefit of young readers who can't remember the earlier fine years of the commentariat getting it right, he relives a youthful ardor for the domino theory, dusts it off, and brings it to fresh Islamic life in Domino theory for the age of terror.
But first a little history for the young 'uns:
When I was a university student during the Vietnam War we had long debates about the domino theory that if South Vietnam fell then the rest of Indochina and, one by one, the remaining countries of southeast Asia, would go communist in rapid succession.
It was, as some of us who supported it were told loftily, a theory quite unproven and discounted by many experts.
In the event, it seemed largely borne out by what happened in 1975, if not exactly in the neat and tidy way that some predicted: Cambodia and Laos fell as, and plainly because, Saigon fell.
In the event, it seemed largely borne out by what happened in 1975, if not exactly in the neat and tidy way that some predicted: Cambodia and Laos fell as, and plainly because, Saigon fell.
Ah yes, Cambodia, and thank the lord its fall had nothing to do with it being dragged into the war by the PAV and the NLF using it to escape US forces, the US conspiring to remove neutralist Norodom Sihanouk and get Lon Nol in place, thereby bizarrely empowering the electic Sihanouk to get into bed with Beijing and the Khmer Rouge - a process aided and abetted by Nixon deciding to bomb the hell out of the place, while encouraging a South Vietnamese invasion. At the end of it all, Lon Nol was left between a rock and a hard place, after a thirty day campaign which left his forces battling a home grown insurgency now fully backed by the Communists.
Well the mess that became Cambodia might not have been exactly a "neat and tidy" example of the domino theory, as Colebatch so quaintly puts the deaths of millions, but it surely does suggest the stupidity of military and political power exercised without any sense of responsibility or awareness of the end game.
But then compared to chess, dominoes is a pretty simple minded game, and entirely on the level you'd expect for Colebatch. Never mind, let's keep on with the history lesson:
The other southeast Asian countries, which had been given time to strengthen their economies and political institutions by the long holding action in Vietnam, did not fall. The bottle stayed corked, as The Economist put it.
However, emboldened by this wave of victory, communist movements with Soviet help staged takeovers in a series of other, not geographically contiguous, countries, with communist or far-leftist regimes coming to power in Benin, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Cape Verde, Mozambique, Angola, Afghanistan, Grenada and Nicaragua during the 1970s.
However, emboldened by this wave of victory, communist movements with Soviet help staged takeovers in a series of other, not geographically contiguous, countries, with communist or far-leftist regimes coming to power in Benin, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Cape Verde, Mozambique, Angola, Afghanistan, Grenada and Nicaragua during the 1970s.
The last domino to fall was probably the Smith regime in Rhodesia in 1980: the Marxist takeovers in neighbouring Mozambique and Angola had made its position hopeless.
Ah, hang on, the domino theory was supposed to apply to southeast Asia. Now the domino theory applies to Africa, and presumably the world? And to noble white regimes battling insurgent, uppity, upstart blacks? Yes, not just the world, Europe as well:
There was an upsurge of revolutionary communist and leftist movements in western Europe and the US at about the same time - including groups such as the Red Brigades, the Baader-Meinhof gang, and the Weather Underground.
Now hang on there a minute, wasn't the domino theory about the overthrow of states? Suddenly it includes terrorists who didn't manage to overthrow anything much, their main achievement being to provide fertile fodder for later generations of film-makers.
By golly this is a handy domino theory. It explains everything about everything. Perhaps there's a reverse pike with twist domino theory that explains that for everything there's an equal and opposite reaction. Well yes, there is, because dominoes is an equal opportunity game:
A few years later, and perhaps partly in reaction, we saw the dominoes falling again, but this time they went the other way. Possibly the costly Soviet failure in Afghanistan was the first signal that the Red Army, which we had been told would be able to sweep NATO forces into the Atlantic in a few days in the event of a general attack westward into Europe, could not even subdue a poor, backward nation with which it shared a border.
This was among the events giving heart to the anti-communist movements smouldering within the whole Soviet empire.
Anyway, Hungary and Poland were the first countries in Europe to show that they could now openly defy Moscow and get away with it, with rapid consequences in the rest of eastern Europe, the Baltic states and Russia itself.
A few years later, and perhaps partly in reaction, we saw the dominoes falling again, but this time they went the other way. Possibly the costly Soviet failure in Afghanistan was the first signal that the Red Army, which we had been told would be able to sweep NATO forces into the Atlantic in a few days in the event of a general attack westward into Europe, could not even subdue a poor, backward nation with which it shared a border.
This was among the events giving heart to the anti-communist movements smouldering within the whole Soviet empire.
Anyway, Hungary and Poland were the first countries in Europe to show that they could now openly defy Moscow and get away with it, with rapid consequences in the rest of eastern Europe, the Baltic states and Russia itself.
Yes, it does, it's way better than 42 as the answer to everything! And never you young 'uns mind about a nuanced understanding of the political situation of each nation state so glibly wrapped up in such a fine and comprehensive wave of understanding. It's a veritable El Nino in the sweeping tide of history (okay, La Nina for the feminists).
We're off in the whacky, zany world of Michael Lind, and so now it's time to apply the domino theory to the crusade against Islam. Well clearly the clash of civilizations, as popularized by Samuel P. Huntington, is now a bit off, a bit neo con or neo liberal these days, and ripe for a spring clean, in much the same way as creationists really needed to come up with intelligent design to re-badge, re-package their goods.
Soon the last domino crashed in Moscow. Even in China and Indochina communist ideology survived in little more than name. It had not been a matter of military invasion but of demonstration.
History never repeats itself exactly, but the domino effect appears to have been sufficiently demonstrated in recent decades to look very pertinent to Afghanistan, Pakistan and beyond.
It seems obvious that a Western defeat in Afghanistan would make a Taliban victory in Pakistan very likely. If defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan is proving difficult, defeating an achieved and dug-in Taliban regime in Pakistan would be worse for both military and political reasons.
Even if the Taliban did not get hold of Pakistan's considerable stockpile of nuclear weapons, it appears more than probable that such a victory would be disastrous for the western position not only vis-a-vis the geographically contiguous countries but also in regard to other Muslim countries now striving to contain jihadist fundamentalism, such as Turkey and Indonesia, and also in regard to the European and other Western countries that now have large Muslim populations: it seems impossible to deny the logic that extremist and jihadist elements would be encouraged everywhere.
History never repeats itself exactly, but the domino effect appears to have been sufficiently demonstrated in recent decades to look very pertinent to Afghanistan, Pakistan and beyond.
It seems obvious that a Western defeat in Afghanistan would make a Taliban victory in Pakistan very likely. If defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan is proving difficult, defeating an achieved and dug-in Taliban regime in Pakistan would be worse for both military and political reasons.
Even if the Taliban did not get hold of Pakistan's considerable stockpile of nuclear weapons, it appears more than probable that such a victory would be disastrous for the western position not only vis-a-vis the geographically contiguous countries but also in regard to other Muslim countries now striving to contain jihadist fundamentalism, such as Turkey and Indonesia, and also in regard to the European and other Western countries that now have large Muslim populations: it seems impossible to deny the logic that extremist and jihadist elements would be encouraged everywhere.
Exactly. Let's get rid of that old fashioned notion of a war on terror, which has passed its shelf use by day. Let's conflate terrorism and nation states and Islam and fundamentalism and jihadism. Let's bring back those toppling dominoes. That should scare the shit out of everybody once again.
After all, the war in Iraq did such a tremendously good job of settling down extremists everywhere.
... the 2006 National Intelligence Estimate, which outlined the considered judgment of all 16 US intelligence agencies, held that "The Iraq conflict has become the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement."
And what exactly did Iraq war have to do with terrorism? Don't believe me, ask the main man. Well he was the head gonzo until he wasn't:
Bush: What did Iraq have to do with what?
Journalist: .. the attack on the world trade centre?
Bush: Nothing ... Except for it's part of ... and nobody's ever suggested in this administration that Saddam Hussein ordered the attack ... nobody's ever suggested that the attacks of September 11th were ordered by Iraq ...
Yep simple minded conflations can surely get you in a pickle hotter than a stolen tamale. So why not keep on doing it?
Even if the Taliban did not get hold of Pakistan's considerable stockpile of nuclear weapons, it appears more than probable that such a victory would be disastrous for the western position not only vis-a-vis the geographically contiguous countries but also in regard to other Muslim countries now striving to contain jihadist fundamentalism, such as Turkey and Indonesia, and also in regard to the European and other Western countries that now have large Muslim populations: it seems impossible to deny the logic that extremist and jihadist elements would be encouraged everywhere.
There are already about two million Muslims in Britain alone and recent surveys show a large percentage of them, especially among the younger generation, hold radical and militant attitudes.
In some other European countries the proportion of Muslims in the population is higher.
A Western military defeat in Afghanistan and the consequences in neighbouring countries would almost inevitably have further ongoing consequences in Europe.
There are already about two million Muslims in Britain alone and recent surveys show a large percentage of them, especially among the younger generation, hold radical and militant attitudes.
In some other European countries the proportion of Muslims in the population is higher.
A Western military defeat in Afghanistan and the consequences in neighbouring countries would almost inevitably have further ongoing consequences in Europe.
Yes, I can see it now, all Europe under the sway of fundamentalist Islamics. Germany France and worst of all the sweet green fields of England. No more fox hunting! But banning popular music, soccer hooligans, thuggery in the streets, and dancing might be a good thing. Teach the common folk a lesson.
And lordy lordy, look they've already invaded Camden in Sydney, and soon enough the latte sippers will be getting a good flogging for their indolence and cynicism.
Ah well, never mind that the US funded the Taliban to defeat the Russians, and now have to deal with the mess of their adventurism. Now we have to dig in and battle it out with the extremists, and fragment the world, and give encouragement to extremists everywhere by insisting that that there's a clash of civilizations going down. Or is that dominoes tumbling?
Given that the domino theory is worth taking seriously, the magnitude of the possible consequences of defeat in Afghanistan, not only for that country's own people but also for the region and for the west as a whole puts Australia's commitment of an additional 450 troops there into perspective.
Well actually no, the domino theory, as presented here, is a half assed, half baked, simple minded bit of obscurantist nonsense, about as useful to political and military settings as a clock that gets the time right twice a day. And if the dominoes were falling around the world, what does it really say about Australia that we only managed 450 troops?
Hell the whole country should be over there fighting. What a pathetic pittance as the end of the western world looms nigh and we're down to the last domino. 450 troops!? They don't value domino paranoia like they used to in the old days, I tells ya, just like I can never get the crispy bacon they had before the war.
Hmm, wonder if I can get an age exemption for Hal G. P. Colebatch so he can get over there at once and help stop those dominoes falling ...
(Below: paranoia, or is that the whole world I see collapsing before me?)
No comments:
Post a Comment